Mainstream Concerns about an Economic Slowdown Revisited

    Recently, we reported that many believe a recession could happen within the next two years. We explained that 70% of economists and market analysts surveyed last year believe that a recession will occur in 2019 or 2020 and that 42% of consumers currently looking to purchase a home also agree that a recession will occur this year or next.

    However, the U.S. economy has performed well in the first quarter of 2019 and that has caused some experts to change their thinking on an impending economic slowdown.

    Here are a few notable examples:

    Anthony Chan, Chief Economist at JPMorgan Chase

    “I feel really comfortable that the economy is slowing down this year, but not going into a recession… It doesn’t look, to me, like the odds of a recession in 2020 are there.”

    Dean Baker, Senior Economist at the Center for Economic & Policy Research

     “To sum up the general picture, the U.S. economy is definitely weakening… However, with wages growing at a respectable pace, and job growth remaining healthy, we should see enough consumption demand to keep the economy moving forward. That means slower growth, but no recession.”

    Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer, Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley

    “I’m not convinced a recession is coming soon… I see an improving housing market (low rates help), a rebound in bank lending, a tight labor market, higher oil prices and well-behaved credit markets. All these point to a stable U.S. economic outlook.”

    Bottom Line

    We are seeing a stronger economy than many had predicted. That has caused some experts to push off the possibility of a recession further into the horizon.

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    Danny Cheung

    I spent over twenty five (25) years with the Department of Defense in the hardware/software design and development as well as program management prior to joining the Group in a full time capacity. I am thrilled to put my years of experience as an Electronics Engineer to assist and lead our Real Estate Group to the next level. I am committed to establishing the tools and resources necessary for our team members to work more seamlessly and effectively thus ensuring our clients full satisfaction. My wife and I have two daughters and a dog (he's more like our son). I enjoy travelling and watching sports especially football…Go Skins!

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