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    Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable

    Earlier this week, we discussed how most projections from financial institutions are calling for a quick V-shaped recovery from this economic downturn, and there’s research on previous post-pandemic recoveries to support that expectation.

    In addition, we noted how there are some in the business community who believe we may instead be headed for a U-shaped recovery, where the return to previous levels of economic success won’t occur until the middle of next year. Yesterday, Reuters released a poll of U.S. and European economists which revealed that most surveyed are now leaning more toward a U-shaped recovery.

    Here are the results of that poll:Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable | MyKCM

    Why the disparity in thinking among different groups of economic experts?

    The current situation makes it extremely difficult to project the future of the economy. Analysts normally look at economic data and compare it to previous slowdowns to create their projections. This situation, however, is anything but normal.

    Today, analysts must incorporate data from three different sciences into their recovery equation:

    1. Business Science – How has the economy rebounded from similar slowdowns in the past?

    2. Health Science – When will COVID-19 be under control? Will there be another flareup of the virus this fall?

    3. Social Science – After businesses are fully operational, how long will it take American consumers to return to normal consumption patterns? (Ex: going to the movies, attending a sporting event, or flying).

    The challenge of accurately combining the three sciences into a single projection has created uncertainty, and it has led to a wide range of opinions on the timing of the recovery.

    Bottom Line

    Right now, the vast majority of economists and analysts believe a full recovery will take anywhere from 6-18 months. No one truly knows the exact timetable, but it will be coming.

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    Danny Cheung

    I spent over twenty five (25) years with the Department of Defense in the hardware/software design and development as well as program management prior to joining the Group in a full time capacity. I am thrilled to put my years of experience as an Electronics Engineer to assist and lead our Real Estate Group to the next level. I am committed to establishing the tools and resources necessary for our team members to work more seamlessly and effectively thus ensuring our clients full satisfaction. My wife and I have two daughters and a dog (he's more like our son). I enjoy travelling and watching sports especially football…Go Skins!

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